European Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans, who has responsibility for the European Green Deal and Climate Action, said aviation presented a particular challenge due a huge increase in carbon emissions over the past decade, which needed to be tackled.

“Now with the pandemic, aviation has been particularly hard hit and a lot of public money has been put into keeping the sector alive,” he told the conference. “I think that was a good choice because the sector is going to be crucial in our recovery and the future structure of our economy – but it has to be a sector with a heavily reduced carbon footprint.

“We will need to look at what will be fuelling future aircraft and that is of extreme importance. I know the industry is on board with this and most of our own [EU] governments are too. With the election of Joe Biden in the US, the international environment is also quickly changing and there is no doubt in my mind they will be looking for a rapid reduction in carbon emissions as well. The traditional argument that we cannot touch aviation because it is an international sector becomes moot if we all start moving in the same direction.”

He called for European investment support of new technologies that would enable lower-cost production of sustainable fuels, including synthetic kerosene and clean hydrogen.

“What instruments do we have to influence this?” he said. “From my perspective, the EU ETS is the best system. It puts a price on carbon and allows us to generate revenue that can be used to be invested to create sustainable transport. Talking to my counterparts in America and China, forms of ETS are going to be cornerstones of their approach to decarbonising their economies as well. At the moment, it’s a piecemeal approach but if we do it at scale then we create a level playing field and then the risk of putting the European airline industry at a disadvantage diminishes.

“As well as carbon pricing and RefuelEU Aviation, we will have to look at how we integrate other transport systems into a sustainable solution. It is important to have a fundamental conversation about the future of this industry. It is not just about changing the energy used for air transportation but it’s also about the future role of the sector. Funding the recovery by putting the burden on our children and grandchildren will only work if we can show a better and more sustainable economy. There shouldn’t though be an antagonism between reaching climate neutrality and having a vibrant airline industry that responds to the transportation needs of our citizens and economy.”

The unprecedented Covid crisis had brought European air traffic back to 1995 levels, said Vălean, who expects recovery to fully return after five years and reach 14.4 million flights per year by 2035.

“However, it doesn’t make sense to go from catastrophic losses to an increased environmental impact. Along with an increase in flights, we have to see a decrease in emissions. It is not an easy task but neither is it an impossible one because we now have the technologies, we have a plan and for the first time, we have the commitment of the entire aviation industry to change. Ten years ago, even five years ago, it would have been impossible to sit all the actors at the same table and to see them sharing the same goals and vision as we are seeing today.”

She said sustainable fuels had a major role to play but the estimated share of SAF in the EU today was only around 0.05% of total jet fuel consumption.

“We need to scale up production capacity and make them widely available on the market,” she said. “This will require both cooperation and a sustainable policy framework, and, of course, an acceptable business case. In terms of cooperation, we plan to involve every interested party – airlines, producers, researchers, airports, public authorities, civil society and others – to establish a renewable and low-carbon value alliance. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. We need to know with precision, which are our weakest links and create the right conditions to strengthen the entire chain.”

Vălean said a consequence of the RefuelEU Aviation initiative would be to attract major investment in European SAF production capacity that would lead to increasing uptake.

“We will also make sure our proposal maintains and guarantees a strong level playing field for industry in the EU,” she added. “The transition to sustainable fuels must be driven and endorsed collectively by the aviation industry community, and costs for clean fuels must be shared as fairly as possible.

“As aviation is global by nature, we will accelerate a discussion in global forums like ICAO and we must continue to convince our third country aviation partners that sustainable alternative fuels are the right choice to ensure that the growing aviation sector has a sustainable future.”

Andreas Scheuer, Germany’s transport minister, agreed measures needed to be coordinated at an international level and that the current crisis offered chances for the sustainable development of aviation. As air transport would continue to rely on liquid fuels for the foreseeable future, the use of SAF was key to contributing to environmental and climate protection in aviation, he said.

“From the different types of sustainable fuels, Germany is especially focusing on synthetic e-fuels produced from renewable electricity, CO2 and water, known as power-to-liquid (PtL) kerosene,” he said. “In our view, PtL has the highest potential to contribute the sustainable development of aviation and our climate goals.”

Despite the promise of PtL fuels, he conceded, there was no business case as yet due to high production costs, a lack of supply and demand, and current limitations of renewable electricity supplies. To support market development, he said Germany had set up a funding regime that would provide €1.5 billion ($1.8bn) over the next four years, with a special allocation for aviation PtL fuels. This would be complemented, subject to the recovery of the aviation sector from the crisis, by a national blending quota of 0.5% PtL starting from 2026, increasing up to 2% by 2030, based on sales of jet kerosene in Germany.

“However, market distortion has to be considered and addressed. We therefore advocate for a common European and international approach regarding regulatory measures and quotas,” he said. “In this context, we support RefuelEU Aviation to boost the supply and demand for SAF and PtL. This regulation, in our view, should include a separate requirement for PtL kerosene.”

He reported the government and industry stakeholders were currently developing a PtL roadmap for aviation, which would be published shortly in German and English.

French transport minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said in a keynote address that while synthetic fuels were currently expensive, the economics would improve through innovation and scalability. Sustainable aviation fuels are already available and would increase in the coming years, while hydrogen was expected in 2035, he added.

“We must develop all these technologies and keep in mind the timeframe is different for each of them,” he said. “We need to integrate all certified and available SAF pathways despite their current levels of production maturities. The use of SAF should be an obligation to airlines and increase with progressive phasing and harmonised at the EU level.”

To send a signal to the market, he suggested a European mandatory target of 5% SAF by 2030, with obligations that feedstocks are produced in the EU and came with high standards of sustainability. “We should avoid relying on imports of feedstocks from outside the EU. It’s a matter of improving our energy independence and also the externalities associated with the transport of non-local feedstock.

“In France, we have just published a national roadmap that sets a target of 1% incorporation by 2022, based on an incentive through a tax exemption on jet supplies. We are supporting innovative projects and launched a call for expressions of interest last year. Today, there are around 15 projects, bringing together aircraft companies, airlines, industrials and waste management specialists. The projects are at different stages, some in a pilot phase, some need further studies, but things are going well at the moment and we can see a very good momentum in France.”

Sweden’s Minister of Infrastructure, Tomas Eneroth, said blending mandates should be coordinated as a joint EU initiative but that it was up to individual Member States to decide the measures to use in order to reach a minimum share. It was also important that any EU legislation proposal should support ambitious States that were already moving ahead with SAF initiatives. Sweden, he said, was intending this summer to introduce an obligation based on GHG emission reductions.

“The purpose of opting for a reduction obligation is that compared with a blending obligation, it favours fuels with lower lifecycle emissions,” he said, adding that Sweden would welcome a revision of the EU energy taxation directive to allow for Member States to tax fossil jet fuel used in international aviation.

“In the short term, we are open to bilateral agreements on taxation. I also hope that there will be a broader discussion at ICAO on international regulation. It is of the utmost importance we continue discussions on work on sustainable aviation at the European level. It is time for the EU to take the next step and we are fully committed to making aviation more sustainable, resilient and future-proof.”

Timo Harakka, Minister of Transport for Finland, said the EU had to drive ambitious climate goals at a global level. “The next ICAO Assembly in 2022 will show whether the aviation community is ready for concrete measures. It will no doubt be challenging to agree on a common goal and necessary measures. However, there is no time to postpone the inevitable. Whether the measures are national, EU-wide or global, sustainable aviation fuels are at the very centre of them.

“I’m certain e-fuels will play a major role in decarbonising aviation. We’re not there yet but there are some promising initiatives in Europe, including in Finland. It is very important that as we move to maximum usage of e-fuels in the future, we also maximise the use of the current available measures. With swift and ambitious action, the aviation sector could make a real difference in achieving EU 2030 climate goals and we can drive the change in the global area.”

Latvia’s Minister for Transport, Tālis Linkaits, said there were numerous challenges ahead, including the SAF price gap, and especially for small and distant Member States like Latvia. He also advocated that airlines should not be burdened with SAF quota demands.

“Nevertheless, I would like to express support for the pioneering efforts in this field and with mutual cooperation, we can help each other to initiate the ramp up,” he said.

Eight EU States – France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – issued a joint statement during the conference:

“We therefore support the aim of the European Commission to boost the supply and demand for SAF in the EU so as to create favourable conditions in order to ramp up the production and deployment of SAF, based on robust sustainability criteria. The potential of synthetic aviation fuels, in addition to advanced sustainable biofuels, is clear. The challenge is to make use of the current momentum by providing for a clear long-term perspective so as to contribute to a scalable SAF marketplace. A European blending mandate can achieve this.

“So we call upon the European Commission to further stimulate and incentivise the uptake of SAF, including synthetic fuels, through funding programmes under the existing financial framework and we welcome the RefuelEU Aviation initiative as a starting point for further EU coordination so as to ensure an integral and effective long-term agenda on sustainable aviation.”

The 500 litres of synthetic kerosene showcased during the conference was produced by Shell at its research centre in Amsterdam from CO2, water and renewable energy from local sun and wind sources. It was used on a KLM flight between Amsterdam and Madrid.

“This promising innovation will be of great importance in the coming decades to reduce CO2 emissions from aviation,” commented Cora van Nieuwenhuizen. “It is great that in the Netherlands, we were the first to show that this is possible – a big compliment for all involved. I hope that in these turbulent times for aviation, this will inspire people in the sector to continue on this course.”

Photo: Fuelling the first ever commercial flight to use synthetic kerosene (credit: KLM)

“Progressing the development and commercial deployment of SAF is crucial to decarbonising the aviation industry and this partnership with LanzaJet shows the progress British Airways is making as we continue on our journey to net zero,” commented British Airways CEO Sean Doyle.

LanzaJet was formed in June last year with investment from LanzaTech, Canadian integrated energy company Suncor Energy and Japanese global trading and investment company Mitsui & Co. All Nippon Airways (ANA) is also supporting the venture through an offtake agreement and has already used a portion of fuel produced at Freedom Pines’ initial demonstration facility on a transpacific delivery flight of a new Boeing aircraft from Everett to Tokyo in 2019. Fuel from the 4,000-gallon batch was also used on a commercial passenger flight operated by Virgin Atlantic from Orlando to London Gatwick in 2018.

Details of BA’s investment have not been released although Suncor and Mitsui have invested $15 million and $10 million respectively to establish LanzaJet, with a further $14 million grant from the US Department of Energy. The funding is being used to build the Freedom Pines integrated biorefinery that will produce 10 million gallons per year of SAF and renewable diesel from sustainable ethanol sources. In addition to its equity investment, Suncor has contracted to take a significant portion of the SAF and renewable diesel for its customers. Once technical and economic targets have been met, further investment and a capital call are planned, says LanzaJet.

With the addition of British Airways, the company now plans to develop a further four larger scale plants producing SAF and renewable diesel to operate from 2025, possibly some or all being built in the UK subject to “improved” government policy support for waste-based SAF, it says. The early-stage work for a potential commercial facility in the UK for BA will be conducted in parallel to the construction of the Georgia plant to shorten development timescales, said a spokesperson for LanzaTech.

“Following the successful start-up of the Georgia plant, we hope to then deploy the technology and SAF production capacity in the UK,” said Doyle. “The UK has the experience and resources needed to become a global leader in the deployment of such SAF production facilities.”

British Airways and LanzaTech are also members of the Jet Zero Council, a government/industry partnership to drive the net-zero ambitions of the UK government and aviation sector, which has a focus on SAF. “We need government support to drive decarbonisation and accelerate the realisation of this vision,” added Doyle.

BA has recently teamed up with Zeroavia in a hydrogen-powered aircraft project and parent company IAG plans to invest $400 million in SAF over the next 20 years.

LanzaJet CEO Jimmy Samartzis said: “British Airways has long been a champion of waste to fuel pathways, especially with the UK government. With the right support for waste-based fuels, the UK would be an ideal location for commercial-scale LanzaJet plants.”

The LanzaTech partnership with Virgin Atlantic goes back nearly a decade. “We continue to work with Virgin Atlantic and the LanzaJet investment from BA does not affect this,” said the LanzaTech spokesperson. “We are looking forward to our continued partnership with Virgin in developing the scale-up of ATJ in the UK.”

The Freedom Pines plant will convert any source of sustainable ethanol – which can be made, for example, from non-edible agricultural residues such as wheat straw, municipal solid waste and also LanzaTech’s own developed technology that recycles waste industrial gases – into renewable jet fuel and diesel through a process patented by LanzaTech. The company claims its jet fuel delivers a reduction of more than 70% in GHG emissions compared to conventional fossil jet fuel. LanzaJet has exclusive rights to the ethanol-to-fuel process and permission to commercialise the technology, said Samartzis, who joined the company last year, having previously served at IATA, Airlines for America and United Airlines.

The new pre-commercial plant will be adjacent to the old demonstration cellulosic ethanol production facility in Soperton, 250 kms south-east of Atlanta, that LanzaTech acquired in 2012 following the collapse of Range Fuels.

“We’ve made very good progress on the engineering and fabrication front and we’re taking a very innovative approach to applying the technology, so enabling us to accelerate the pace,” reported Samartzis on the ambitious plan to start producing fuels as early as late next year.

Photo: British Airways

“While the Covid crisis has compelled us to make many changes across the business, one thing that hasn’t changed is our commitment to minimising the impact we have on the environment,” commented Andrew Parker, Qantas Group Executive, Government, Industry and Sustainability. “Even though we have been flying a lot less, we’ve actually seen the same proportion of customers choosing to offset their domestic travel during the pandemic – showing this issue remains top of people’s minds.

“Airlines globally have a responsibility to cut emissions and combat climate change, particularly once travel demand starts to return. The Qantas Group has set some ambitious targets to be net carbon neutral by 2050 and while offsetting emissions is a big part of that in the next few years, longer term initiatives like building a sustainable aviation fuel sector in Australia, are key.”

The airline group claims to operate one of the industry’s largest carbon offset programmes, with around 10% of customers booking flights on its website opting to offset the emissions from their flights. In turn, both Qantas and low-cost subsidiary Jetstar match every dollar spent by customers.

“We think the programme can grow and we have a lot of corporates, not just individuals, signing up for it,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce told a recent Eurocontrol Aviation StraightTalk interview (see video below). “Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is going to take a while to get established and make it economic.”

He said Qantas would be working on a plan with BP to create a local SAF industry to help it meet the 2050 target. “BP think it’s a great opportunity. In Australia we have a massive land mass and our airline, pre-Covid, was spending $4 billion a year on fuel. There’s potential for an industry here in Australia that we’re excited about developing.”

Commenting on the tie-up with Qantas, BP’s EVP, Regions, Cities & Solutions, William Lin, said: “At BP, we’re focusing on working with corporates in key industrial sectors that currently have significant carbon emissions to manage and need to decarbonise – sectors such as aviation.

“By bringing our complementary capabilities together, we can help each other, and our customers, move at a faster pace on the energy transition journey. We are delighted to have the opportunity to collaborate with Qantas on plans to reach net-zero while continuing to deepen our existing relationship.”

Frédéric Baudry, President, BP Australia and SVP Fuels & Low Carbon Solutions, Asia Pacific, said: “This is another move towards our ambition to be a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner and help the world to get to net-zero. We believe the planet needs everyone working together on this vital cause, and that supporting companies to transition to a more sustainable future means we can all get there faster.

“Forming strong strategic partnerships with leading companies like Qantas is an important way to achieve our shared goals and we are proud that BP is working to provide decarbonisation solutions for customers in Australia.”

Photo: BP

Excerpt of interview with Qantas CEO Alan Joyce talking about sustainability and SAF:

Dr Liu said the UN agency could play a central role in bringing states, manufacturers, airlines, airports and stakeholders together in the post-Covid transition towards a decarbonised future.

“A global policy under ICAO is crucial because this is the only way to ensure the success of this global transition that needs to take place, while leaving no country behind and avoiding distortion of competition,” she told the session, ‘Building a Path to Net-Zero Aviation’, moderated by LanzaTech CEO Jennifer Holmgren.

“The disruptions to the way of life of billions around the world will bring fundamental and widespread changes to who aviation serves, and how, once the pandemic is behind us. The aviation sector will need to rapidly adapt, to access green funding for investments in technology, operations and fuels, in order to meet the growing calls for a sustainable flying future.”

She said individuals too will play an increasingly important role in sustainability, choosing to fly with airlines and on aircraft with lower emissions.

Added the UK government’s Grant Shapps: “Absolutely fundamental to our ‘build back better’ plan is to decarbonise aviation, making planes cleaner and greener so the sector can grow in a sustainable and resilient way. It’s a process that started well before coronavirus but I consider it to be more important than ever that as we come out of it, we pursue it even more actively. Our single overriding goal is to make net-zero a possibility in aviation and to do so well before 2050.”

He said governments working alone could not tackle the issue and close collaboration with industry and also at a global level was needed, pointing to the setting up in the UK of the Jet Zero Council and the UK working through ICAO to set global net-zero, long-term goals and standards for aviation emissions.

“We want to use COP26 to help accelerate the transition to cleaner aviation,” he said. “We’re going to be working with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and other states to develop new policy tools that will help the deployment of SAF. For the summit itself, we’re seeking to arrange the provision of SAF for delegates’ flights at key UK airports and we’re going to encourage other countries across the world to do the same.

“The world is coming together around this policy discussion but only the power of government as a convener can bring it altogether and ‘grease the wheels’ to accelerate the process.”

Grazia Vittadini of Airbus said multilateralism and cross-industry unity was the common denominator in stimulating a sustainable and long-term recovery of the sector. “We clearly have the right level of ambition and science-driven targets,” she said. “Now we need to progress on the regulatory framework of policy support as well as robust and safe technology pathways to get us there.”

Schiphol’s Dick Benschop said that up until now there had been a scatter-gun approach to aviation sustainability policy that had been ineffective.

“We need to focus on three areas: carbon pricing schemes that encourage the right incentives, tackling the issue of SAF mandates and how to support R&D into new propulsion areas such as electric and hydrogen. Ticket taxes aren’t helpful as they add cost but don’t drive sustainability. Sustainability will have its costs but enormous benefits as well and we need policies that drive investments.”

He said there was cause for optimism, with policies taking shape in Europe such as the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative that he expected will introduce a SAF blending mandate. “This would be an enormous step forward,” he believes.

Other positive developments he saw included a coming together by the sector towards a commitment to net-zero aviation in 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement and the big oil companies making serious investment decisions on sustainable fuels.

Vittadini saw similar signs of optimism and said it was a false choice as to whether the aviation sector should first focus on recovering profitability post-Covid or remain committed to net-zero.

“At Airbus, we have accelerated our carbon-neutral ambition into a tangible plan to bring a zero-emission aircraft to market by 2035, which is the most direct contribution we can bring as a manufacturer,” she said.

“The pandemic has increased global understanding of how dependent we are on our environment. It’s become quite clear that any industry recovery and profit in the years to come will depend on ambitious climate protection plans in parallel.

“Another key implication for the industry, especially in Europe, is finding a balanced way forward for alternative fuel propulsion solutions and I see three priorities.”

First, she said, was the need to boost production and uptake of SAF through dedicated policy measures. “More specifically, I believe this policy should include prioritisation of sustainable fuels for aviation, investing in high-impact feedstock and conversion technologies, and cost-effective financing. SAF provides a short and long term solution to decarbonising the sector, while technology in parallel continues to evolve to achieve even more fuel-efficient aircraft than today.”

Another step would be to implement a “green stimulus” for airlines to enable them to retire old and less environmentally-friendly aircraft, she said.

“Replacing a single aircraft can save more than 4,500 tonnes of CO2 per year, with the saving rising to 37,000 tonnes if you consider long-range aircraft. Creating the right conditions, the right financing framework to allow airlines to modernise their fleet towards more fuel-efficient aircraft is a win-win and would help support the European green agenda.

“Lastly, we need to catalyse an industry collaboration like we have never seen before in recent history, joining forces with all stakeholders across the industry, the political arena and research institutions. It’s important to note that as with every new technology and innovation rollout, the global transition to zero-emission flight requires a total rethink of many elements of our intricate aviation ecosystem.

“Hydrogen will need a technical redesign of current aircraft. Engineers will need to take the technologies developed in automotive and space to bring the weight and the cost down, and making the technology safe and compatible with commercial aircraft operations. We’re going to need to mobilise changes to airport infrastructure and we’ve started working with several airports, including Schiphol, on the concept of an airport hydrogen hub. Of course, we’re going to need the cooperation of aviation authorities to certify future hydrogen-powered aircraft to airworthiness safety standards, not to mention government collaboration as a critical piece of the puzzle. We do welcome the R&D funding support we are receiving from the EU and countries including France, Germany, Spain and the UK.”

Established in 2019, the Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST) coalition brings together around 80 aviation and fuel industry companies and other stakeholders, including international organisations and associations, think tanks, NGOs and academia, to facilitate the transition to net-zero flying by mid-century.

In their foreword to the ‘Sustainable Aviation Fuels as a Pathway to Net-Zero Aviation’ report, Christoph Wolff, Head, Shaping the Future of Mobility, at WEF and Daniel Riefer, Platform Fellow WEF and Associate Partner at McKinsey, said that with electric flight and hydrogen-powered propulsion still years away from application at scale, SAF is a necessary step in aviation’s decarbonisation pathway.

“The CST coalition is working to address the chicken-and-egg scenario whereby producers and consumers of SAF are both either unwilling or unable to carry the initial cost burden of investing in new technologies to reach a scale where they are more cost competitive with existing fossil fuel-derived options,” they write. “The aim is to break this impasse and advance the commercial scale of viable production of sustainable low-carbon aviation fuels (bio and synthetic) for broad adoption in the industry by 2030. This report, developed in close consultation with the CST coalition, serves to provide a fact base on which swift and bold actions should be taken by public and private sector leaders alike.”

In 2019, says the report, fewer than 200,000 tonnes of SAF were produced globally, amounting to less than 0.1% of the roughly 300 million tonnes of jet fuel used by commercial airlines. If all SAF projects that have been publicly announced are completed, capacity will scale to at least 4 million tonnes in the next few years, reaching volumes just over 1% of expected global jet fuel demand in 2030. However, it says, a transition to SAF is in reach and from a feedstock perspective, enough raw material is available to fuel all aviation by 2030.

To scale production and make SAF economically viable and scale production, the authors say several advances will be required: technological challenges must be overcome; a supportive regulatory framework needs to be installed to stimulate demand from corporate and private customers; and innovative solutions to finance the transition have to be implemented. “The CST coalition is debating how to meet these challenges and help aviation earn its right to keep growing,” says the report.

It concludes: “Producing sustainable aviation fuel will almost certainly continue to be more expensive than refining fossil jet fuel but the costs of exceeding the 1.5 or 2.0-degree targets of the Paris Agreement are incalculably greater.”

Top photo and video: World Economic Forum

Europe’s major aviation countries experienced declines in CO2 emissions from departing flights around the European average: France -55%, Germany -53% and the United Kingdom -60%. Tourism-reliant countries recorded steeper declines, for example Greece -64%, Italy -65% and Spain -64%. The reduction in emissions from flights from the Netherlands was just 41%. (See table below.)

A major reason for the decline in emissions of just 30% from Belgian flights was due to the high proportion of cargo flights, which increased from 11% to 25% in 2020 compared to 2019, reported a Eurocontrol ‘data snapshot’. Cargo flights use larger aircraft and fly further than the Belgian average, it said, and therefore generate above-average CO2 emissions. A second reason was that due to short-haul cancellations, the average scheduled flight was much longer than in 2019, so emitted more CO2.

Brussels Airport said its cargo operations had experienced greater demand than ever in 2020, experiencing a 2.2% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes. The strongest growth was in the full-freighter segment, which was up 43% on 2019, and express services saw a year-on-year increase of 18%. This year, the number of vaccine shipments from Brussels Airport is already rising.

“The year 2020 truly was a very unusual and difficult year for the aviation industry. Fortunately, our cargo department has been in great demand throughout the crisis, particularly for the transport of pharmaceuticals and perishables, and for e-commerce,” said the airport’s Chief Executive, Arnaud Feist. “The major role Brussels Airport played since the end of November in the transport of Covid-19 vaccines will undoubtedly continue throughout 2021.”

However, airlines are having to dramatically reduce their capacity with the stricter travel restrictions now being applied across Europe, said Eurocontrol.

“It is clear that the months of February and March will be exceptionally low across the network, except for cargo, some business traffic and skeleton schedule services,” predicted Eamonn Brennan, Director General of Eurocontrol. “Even April is expected to perform very poorly, with only a limited pick-up for the Easter period. Flights in Europe will probably only be around 25-30% of normal. It is a complete disaster for European aviation – an industry that’s already on its knees.”

At a global level, new forecasts from airports association ACI World indicate a slow, uneven and uncertain recovery in 2021. By the end of 2020, the global airport industry had experienced a reduction of more than 6 billion passengers, representing a decline of 64.2% on the previous year, according to ACI’s latest Covid-19 impact analysis. Its World Airport Traffic Forecasts report shows that over the next five years, passenger traffic worldwide is expected to grow at an annualised rate of +2.4%. While markets with significant domestic traffic are not expected to recover to pre-Covid levels before 2023, markets with a significant share of international traffic will recover much more slowly, expects ACI.

The report shows the Asia-Pacific and Latin America-Caribbean regions are predicted to experience the fastest growth, achieving five-year growth rates of +3.5% and +3.1%, respectively. Africa, Europe, the Middle East and North America will see a more modest expansion, with growth ranging from +1.2% to +1.9%, it says.

China is expected to become the largest passenger market in 2031, surpassing the US, and is projected to continue to dominate passenger rankings in 2040 with just over 3.6 billion passengers, an 18.3% share of the global passenger traffic market. The US and India follow, with 2.9 and 1.3 billion passengers, respectively. Together, the three countries will handle almost 40% of global passenger traffic.

The decline of CO2 emissions from European flights in 2020 compared with 2019:

Top photo: Vaccines being loaded at Brussels Airport

As a contracting state of ICAO, the DfT says the UK is obliged to adopt into domestic law the relevant Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) relating to ICAO’s CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation. The consultation considers CORSIA implementation in terms of MRV and offsetting by operators of their CO2 emissions. A second consultation is planned for this summer on detailed proposals for implementing CORSIA offsetting in the UK.

According to the DfT, implementing CORSIA alongside the UK ETS is being guided by two principles: upholding the UK’s international obligations by implementing CORSIA “as closely as possible” to the globally-agreed SARPs and upholding the UK’s domestic climate obligations to ensure carbon pricing is at least as ambitious as the EU ETS. It says it has taken into account that options could lead to operators having to both cancel CORSIA emissions units and surrender UK ETS allowances for the same tonne of CO2 emitted and the potential for competitive distortions between operators and an increased administrative burden. While accepting aviation has significant climate impacts in addition to CO2, the government says these are not yet well enough understood to form policy with any certainty. Operators are therefore not required to monitor, report or address these non-CO2 effects but the DfT says it is possible that either or both schemes may seek to incorporate these effects in the future.

CORSIA is expected to be implemented in the UK through two statutory instruments (SI) under an Air Navigation Order. The first SI, covering CORSIA MRV, is expected to be in force by spring 2021 and the second, covering CORSIA offsetting, is aimed to come into force by the first UK ETS surrender deadline in April 2022. A further instrument called the UK ETS Order, which includes provisions relating to the aviation free allocation, has already come into force but will be amended in future to reflect the chosen policy option for interaction between CORSIA and the UK ETS.

The first SI covers:

• The attribution of aeroplane operators to a state, the role of the state in implementing CORSIA and details the MRV processes and requirements;
• The MRV of CO2 emissions produced using CORSIA eligible fuels; and
• The enforcement action if operators do not comply with their obligations under the scheme.

The government intends that operators attributed to the UK for CORSIA will be regulated by the same four regulators (for England and the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) as under the UK ETS – for example the Environment Agency (EA) in respect of England. Operators who are attributed to the UK for CORSIA but are not participants in the UK ETS are proposed to be regulated by the EA. A single UK CORSIA focal point will report to ICAO on behalf of all the UK regulators, with the DfT remaining the responsible authority in the UK for CORSIA, in consultation with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the devolved administrations.

Civil penalties for non-compliance can be issued by the regulator through an enforcement notice when it believes an aspect of CORSIA implementation has been or is likely to be implemented incorrectly, and will mirror those applying to the UK ETS. Failure by an operator to apply for or make a revised application for an emissions monitoring plan, or failure to monitor or report emissions carry a penalty of £20,000 ($27,000) plus a daily rate of £500 up to a maximum of £45,000. The penalties rise to £50,000 for more serious infringements.

CORSIA-UK ETS interaction

The consultation then considers the policy options for interaction between CORSIA and the UK ETS. In its introduction, the DfT says the UK is committed to fully participating in CORSIA from the start of the scheme in 2021 but at the same time recognises further action is required to ensure international aviation contributes to the global temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

“The UK is therefore negotiating in ICAO for a long-term goal for international emissions that, like our national targets under the Climate Change Act, is consistent with the Paris Agreement,” it says. “The UK is also acutely aware of its responsibility as COP26 President to push for great ambition in tackling climate change across all sectors. The UK will use the platform of COP26 to push for progress in decarbonising all sectors including aviation. In addition, the UK government and the devolved administrations have higher climate change ambitions than those currently set by ICAO.”

Without policy action, the DfT says CO2 emissions above the CORSIA baseline from international flights departing from the UK to the European Economic Area (EEA) would incur obligations from both the UK ETS and CORSIA, leading to operators being charged twice for these emissions. It puts forward six options in the consultation for consideration. With the exception of one, they assume UK domestic flights will only be included in the UK ETS; international flights to or from the UK that are not covered by the UK ETS would only be included in CORSIA (where the other State is also a participant in the scheme); and flights from EEA States to the UK would be covered by the EU ETS.

Option 1: Simple hybrid scheme – An operator’s UK ETS obligations would be reduced by an amount equivalent to their CORSIA obligations on flights from the UK to the EEA. In effect, this would mean that the UK ETS would apply to emissions on these flights unless they are covered by CORSIA. The option does not allow an operator to directly use CORSIA emissions units against their UK ETS obligations. The option is broadly similar to the ETS-CORSIA ‘mix’ option in an inception impact assessment published by the European Commission. This is assessed by the DfT as the simplest method and means the UK is fully compliant with the CORSIA SARPs whilst ensuring operators face obligations either under CORSIA or the UK ETS on all emissions from UK to EEA flights. However, this option would see the demand for allowances reduced without an equivalent adjustment to the supply, which could contribute to a build-up of surplus UK ETS allowances, plus add a level of complexity for operators on UK to EEA flights.

Option 2: Supply-adjusted hybrid scheme – Based on option 1, operators would be entitled to claim a reduction in their UK ETS obligations equivalent to their CORSIA obligations on flights from the UK to EEA States. Additionally, to maintain the supply-demand balance – and therefore the UK ETS auction price – the UK ETS cap would also be adjusted to account for those emissions covered by CORSIA. For every tonne of CO2 that is removed from the UK ETS obligations of an operator due to CORSIA, a tonne of CO2 in UK ETS allowances would also be retired from the system. Allowances could be taken from the overall UK ETS cap or from allowances allocated to the aviation sector. This option would be more environmentally stringent than the simple hybrid as it would go further towards maintaining the integrity of the UK ETS cap and also help to maintain the supply/demand balance of the UK ETS. It would also be fully compliant with the SARPs. Despite being likely to be the most complicated to administer, it is the government’s initial preferred option.

Option 3:  Restricted hybrid scheme – Operators would be allowed to use CORSIA emissions units against their UK ETS obligations but only if those units meet additional criteria to minimise the risk of not representing additional verifiable emissions reductions or that they have been double-counted. This could be capped at a level equal to the CORSIA obligations on UK ETS international routes. Without this safeguard, this option could lead to cheaper CORSIA units being used in place of UK ETS allowances, leading to oversupply and a significantly reduced price, and would also mean the UK developing its own emissions unit criteria.

Option 4: UK ETS and CORSIA implemented independently – Operators with international flights in the UK ETS would be required to comply with both schemes for emissions above the CORSIA baseline and therefore have overlapping obligations on these flights. This would be the most environmentally ambitious option but would mean operators having to pay twice for the same tonne of CO2. The option would be less administratively complex than a hybrid scheme as the two schemes would run largely separately.

Option 5: Domestic offsetting scheme – CORSIA would still be applied to international flights but instead of operators being covered by the UK ETS, an offsetting scheme based on the design of CORSIA would be applied to the flights that would have been in the scope of the UK ETS. The scheme could use CORSIA MRV, thresholds, exemptions and compliance periods, as well use offset credits rather than allowances for all emissions. As a UK policy, the scheme could have a more stringent baseline than CORSIA for international flights, include UK domestic flights and apply its own emissions unit criteria for emissions not covered by CORSIA. Because this option would replace the UK ETS, it would require some time to deliver, says the DfT, but could be introduced by the start of the CORSIA first phase in 2024. The option would be fully compliant with the SARPs and as it uses offset credits rather than ETS allowances, it would provide the highest demand for domestic and potentially international emissions reduction programmes, which the DfT says would be consistent with the government’s carbon finance ambitions. Against the option, the price of offsets is likely to be below the price of allowances for some years and because all emissions obligations would be met through offsetting rather than allowances, there could be a significantly reduced incentive to reduce in-sector aviation emissions.

Option 6: UK ETS only – Only the UK ETS would apply on UK to EEA flights, whilst CORSIA would apply to all other international flights in the scope of the scheme. As UK to EEA flights would not be subject to CORSIA obligations, the UK would need to file a difference against the definition of international flights in the SARPs. The option would ensure the same level of ambition as now on UK to EEA flights, without charging for the same emissions. It is broadly similar to the ETS-CORSIA ‘clean-cut’ option in the Commission’s inception impact assessment.

Summary of options (source: DfT):

Following this consultation, a second consultation on a more detailed preferred CORSIA-UK ETS interaction policy will be published this summer.

Top photo: Heathrow Airport

“Our industry and customers are committed to addressing climate change and sustainable aviation fuels are the safest and most measurable solution to reduce aviation carbon emissions in the coming decades,” said Stan Deal, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ CEO.

The 2030 commitment is restricted to current and future drop-in fuels rather than new power sources such as hydrogen and electric, which will require fundamentally new aircraft architectures, said Sean Newsum, Director of Environmental Strategy at Boeing. Potential new fuels include power-to-liquid.

“We’re focused on a wide aperture of fuels, so long as the technology pathway is sustainable,” he said. “We don’t favour one over another.”

Given the very low quantities of SAF available to airlines, why the need now to raise the blending limit?

“There’s been rapid progress with testing and certification but not as fast in supply scale-up,” admitted Newsum. “As we see from the daily flights using SAF at Los Angeles by United Airlines, there has been tremendous progress but it’s not nearly enough, despite us overcoming many of the technical issues.

“However, we must raise the blending limit to meet the industry’s 2050 climate goal. Airplanes flying then will have been made around 2030 and so we need to do this now to enable that future. We want to ensure airplanes are ready to accommodate 100% SAF when greater supply becomes available. It’s about operational capability in the future.”

He said the process to approve fuel specifications was lengthy by design to assure the fuel was safe and speculated it would be a number of years before a pathway was approved to allow production and commercial use of a 100% SAF. Nine pathways have so far been approved by standards body ASTM, with only four at the maximum 50% blend. Those restricted to 10% could take longer, he expected.

“There’s also more to using SAF than simply running an engine on it – there are storage and fuel systems involved,” said Newsum. Boeing has already carried out flight testing using 100% SAF on a FedEx-owned 777 Freighter as part of its 2018 ecoDemonstrator programme, which gathered performance data and demonstrate drop-in fuel properties. The fuel was made by refiners Honeywell UOP, Dynamic Fuels and AltAir Fuels from feedstock that consisted of camelina plant oil and agricultural waste. Performance and operability was as expected, reported Boeing.

Rolls-Royce recently carried out ground testing at its Derby, UK, facility of an engine demonstrator using 100% SAF produced by World Energy in Paramount, California. A change to allow 100% SAF would be ground-breaking in terms of sustainability, said the engine manufacturer.

“If SAF production can be scaled up – and aviation needs 500 million tonnes a year by 2050 – we can make a huge contribution for our planet,” said Paul Stein, Chief Technology Officer at Rolls-Royce.

“We know that is a big undertaking and will require teamwork right across a number of stakeholders, including aviation, the fuel industry and government bodies. These tests are a contribution to the SAF debate, aiming to demonstrate that our current engines can operate with 100% SAF as a full drop-in option, laying the groundwork for moving such fuels towards certification.”

The industry has so far, said an aviation fuels expert, taken an appropriately conservative approach to the adoption of SAF but recognises this would be a limitation in the future especially as commercial aviation’s unique technical requirements mean options open to other forms of transport, such as battery power and hydrogen, are not yet viable.

“There is a real challenge to reaching 100% SAF but it is perfectly feasible,” said Chris Lewis, an independent consultant at CLFC with over 40 years’ experience of aviation fuels, their evaluation and approval. “The industry is well placed to meet this challenge by developing new blending materials such that fully SAF fuels can closely replicate the essential performance characteristics of conventional fuels and perhaps even push the boundaries of what is considered a drop-in. 

“R&D carried out in the US and Europe in programmes such as NJFCP, ASCENT and JETSCREEN, and many others, means that we now have the tools to better predict how these novel fuel blends will behave in current and future aircraft designs and therefore aid development, evaluation and approval. The establishment of clearing houses in the US and in the UK/EU will also support the industry in the move to 100% SAF. Programmes such as the UK-led NewJET initiative will be examining in detail the possibilities of opening up the allowable fuel composition and performance envelope beyond today’s constraints and the potential benefits this could bring.”

Boeing, meanwhile, appointed its first Chief Sustainability Officer, Chris Raymond, in September. Commenting on the SAF 2030 target, he said: “With a long history of innovation in sustainable aviation fuels, certifying our family of airplanes to fly on 100% sustainable fuels significantly advances Boeing’s deep commitment to innovate and operate to make the world better. Sustainable aviation fuels are proven, used every day and have the most immediate and greatest potential to reduce carbon emissions in the near and long term when we work together as an industry.”

The company has just reported it reached net-zero carbon emissions at its manufacturing and worksites in 2020 by expanding conservation and renewable energy use, while offsetting the remaining GHG emissions. Boeing says it procures enough renewable electricity from solar, wind and hydropower to power factories in Renton, Washington and Charleston, a large data centre in Arizona and nearly all the needs for the Everett facility, the world’s largest building by floor area.

Boeing offset remaining emissions from operations and business travel through global reduction and removal ventures on five continents, including solar, wind, hydropower and forest carbon projects. The company recently became an official partner in the Aviation Carbon Exchange, a partnership between IATA and XCHG CBL Markets that enables airlines and other aviation stakeholders to purchase carbon offsets eligible for the ICAO CORSIA scheme.

Photo: Boeing carried out flight testing in 2018 using 100% SAF on a FedEx 777 Freighter

Petsonk was at EDF for 25 years working on international climate change policy and representing the NGO at UN climate talks. More recently, she led EDF’s efforts to address the climate impacts from international aviation and represented EDF at ICAO and other international fora.

“Annie Petsonk is the right person, at the right time, to take on the challenge of ensuring that as the aviation industry recovers, it does so with an eye firmly on sustainability, jobs, equity and concern for underserved communities. Annie is an indomitable force. Her tireless, brilliant work at EDF has helped bring about transformational changes in the aviation industry that will benefit the planet and the future of flight,” commented Fred Krupp, President of EDF.

“At EDF, Annie led our work on international aviation, including the adoption of a global airline cap on climate emissions from international flights, as well as our push for stronger aircraft pollution limits, and the wider use of sustainable aviation fuels.

“Importantly, Annie is a compassionate leader who understands both the need for the aviation industry to address its pollution and the reality that there is a global aviation workforce counting on the industry to bounce back, and soon. Reducing aviation emissions requires smart, practical policies, and Annie is just the person to help develop them.

“The Department of Transportation is gaining an effective, trailblazing and highly respected leader who will advance America’s interests in the world, help raise America’s standing globally, and ensure that the aviation industry is well-positioned to meet the challenges of the future.”

A statement by Velocys indicated Velocys and British Airways will continue to work together to secure sources of finance for the plant and hinted new partners could join the venture as the project progresses. It said preparations were underway to apply for significant government funding for the project that the partners believe is well-placed to succeed.

Planning permission for the Altalto Immingham plant was issued by the local council last May and the project has received grants totalling near £1 million ($1.4m) under two stages of the government’s Future Fuels for Flight and Freight competition. Shell and British Airways each contributed £1 million towards the project in June. Depending on securing the remaining finance, construction of the £500 million ($680m) plant is due to begin in 2022 and start producing fuel in 2025. When fully operational, it will convert over 500,000 tonnes per year of municipal waste destined for landfill or incineration into 60 million litres of sustainable jet and road fuel, saving an estimated 80,000 tonnes of net CO2 per year.

“We are looking forward to moving Altalto Immingham to the next stage of development in 2021,” commented Velocys CEO Henrik Wareborn. “It is the most advanced commercial SAF project in the UK and is ready to take advantage of the strong push from both government and industry for the decarbonisation of aviation, especially using waste feedstocks.”

Shell, British Airways and Velocys are members of the Jet Zero Council, a UK government/industry initiative formed last year to help develop greener air travel towards a net-zero target by 2050. The Altalto project has been backed by government ministers.

“Sustainable aviation fuel is vital to the decarbonisation of aviation and to helping us achieve our net zero target. The formation of the Council and the recent launch of its Sustainable Aviation Fuels Delivery Group are testament to the importance the government attaches to SAF,” said Sean Doyle, CEO of British Airways.

Shell is one of the biggest suppliers of jet fuel to the UK aviation market. Wishing Altalto “every success in the future”, Matthew Tipper, Shell VP New Fuels, said: “On this occasion, we have decided to focus our resources on other lower-carbon fuels opportunities which leverage our own technology. We will continue to work with the aviation industry and the UK government and, as part of the Jet Zero Council, to help decarbonise UK aviation.”

Shell Aviation recently sourced SAF via World Energy and SkyNRG for Rolls-Royce’s ALECSys programme that is ground testing the use of 100% SAF in engines at its Derby, UK, facility.

Further afield, last month Shell Aviation agreed to supply SAF to DHL Express at Amsterdam Schiphol, the first customer to be supplied under an agreement reached with Neste in September. The volume of fuel being supplied represents a full year of DHL Express’s requirements from the airport. In October, Shell entered into an agreement with Red Rock Biofuels to purchase SAF and cellulosic renewable diesel fuel from Red Rock’s new biorefinery in Lakeview, Oregon.

Shell Aviation is also supporting the development of another planned European commercial-scale SAF production plant, SkyNRG’s DSL-01 project in the Netherlands. Unlike the intention with Altalto, Shell is not investing directly in the project and instead is providing technical and commercial advice along with an option to purchase SAF when production starts.

Photo: Shell Aviation

“With the increasing demand for SAF in the future, there is a need to diversify SAF technologies and feedstock,” commented Maarten van Dijk, SkyNRG’s Managing Director. “This first-of-a-kind AtJ production in Europe will be an important step in the direction of making SAF more accessible and scalable, supporting net zero ambitions for the aviation industry.”

SkyNRG will act as the project’s coordinator and manage downstream supply chain development, with LanzaTech responsible for plant design, construction and operations. The waste-based ethanol will be sourced from multiple European producers, says the consortium.

“Bending the carbon curve requires collaboration and strong partnerships, something the FLITE consortium exemplifies, and we look forward to implementing LanzaJet technology in Europe,” said LanzaTech CEO Jennifer Holmgren. “This is an important enabler to expanding production of SAF and creating a path to a lower carbon future. We are grateful for the Horizon 2020 funding, which has made this project possible.”

Fraunhofer will oversee and distribute communications about the project and E4Tech will conduct the lifecycle assessment, while the RSB will provide guidance on sustainability certification of the facility.

“This project addresses two key challenges faced by the aviation sector today: rapid decarbonisation and doing so in a sustainable manner,” said RSB Executive Director Rolf Hogan. “It aims to scale the production of SAF in Europe and ensure it meets the most stringent sustainability standards. The RSB is proud to support partners to demonstrate sustainability performance and meet regional and global regulatory requirements of the EU Renewable Energy Directive and ICAO’s CORSIA.”

The consortium says it expects to name the location of the facility shortly and reports a number of airlines having shown interest in purchasing the SAF.

SkyNRG is already leading a project to build Europe’s first commercial SAF plant, named DSL-01, in Delfzijl, the Netherlands. It was due to be commissioned in 2022, although this is now unlikely in the light of present circumstances and the timeline is being reviewed and updated, says SkyNRG. When completed, the plant is set to produce 100,000 tonnes of SAF annually from waste and residue streams such as used cooking oil. The project is being supported by Shell, which has an option to purchase SAF from the facility, with KLM committed to purchasing 75,000 tonnes annually for 10 years.

Photo: SkyNRG